THIS month’s Stafford by-election does not bode well for Redland City’s three state MPs retaining their margins at the next state election.
An 18 per cent swing against the LNP in the by-election resulted in Labor candidate Dr Anthony Lynham taking the seat from the LNP with an 11.4 per cent margin.
If ABC election analyst Antony Green’s “rule of thumb” is correct, halving the by-election swing and applying to the state election would create problems in Capalaba, where Steve Davies’ margin is 3.7 per cent.
The first-time MP, who is chairman of the Parliamentary Crime and Misconduct Committee and the finance committee, said he would work hard to ensure he held the seat in the contest against ALP stalwart Don Brown.
Cleveland MP Mark Robinson, who is Parliament’s deputy Speaker, holds his seat with an 18.1 per cent margin.
The 51-year-old father of seven, said he was looking forward to the challenge against the ALP’s Tracey Huges, an administrative officer in the service industry.
The 53-year-old mum of two from Wellington Point who has cared for an ill adult daughter, was pre-selected to run in the seat this month.
Redlands MP Peter Dowling, plagued with a sexting scandal last year, holds his seat with a massive 21.2 per cent margin.
Mr Dowling, 52, said he would be working hard to retain the seat he has held since May 2009.
The ALP has not announced its candidate for Redlands.
