State of Origin could be worth almost $500,000 per minute if the NRL opts to sell off the marquee interstate series separately in the next broadcast rights deal.
The governing body will start negotiations with networks this week to get in well before the current rights, and those of the AFL, expire at the end of 2017. The move will ensure the maximum number of bidders are engaged in the process in a bid to trump the rival code.
The NRL considered splitting its properties for the last deal, which netted about $1.2 billion – a figure that was similar to that of the AFL. However, sources close to negotiations believe this is likely to happen during the current discussions, meaning Origin, the Auckland Nines, international matches and the World Club Series and even the home-and-away competition itself could be sold individually to a variety of networks.
"I assume there will be no rules," a network insider said. "They wanted to do that last time, so I don't see why they wouldn't discuss that."
Global Media and Sports boss Colin Smith, who worked for the NRL on the last TV deal and has also advised the AFL and ARU in previous negotiations, believes the next league agreement could be worth up to $2 billion. By his estimation, Origin could account for up to 25 per cent of that revenue – meaning each interstate game could be worth up to $416,000 a minute.
"There is no other event in Australia like State of Origin, which averages about 10.5 to 12 million viewers a year," Smith told Fairfax Media from the United States.
"You take 12 million viewers out of the audience of the NRL, that's a big deal.
"It could be [worth] in the hundreds of millions per year. If you think about a finals series, you could argue it's worth 30 to 40 per cent of value. You could then apply that [Origin] is is worth about 20-25 per cent of value.
"Channel Seven will absolutely want to buy Origin. It would be more challenging for them to buy NRL home and away because they would have to put that on Seven Mate and I don't think the NRL would agree to that, nor should they."
However, Smith warned that if Origin was sold separately, it would likely "devalue" the NRL competition proper, as free-to-air networks would pay a premium for exclusivity.
"What they could do, and what the AFL has done, is simulcast home and away," Smith explained. "In other words, for AFL Fox Sports broadcasts every game and they take Channel Seven coverage for four of those games."
The three Origin games were the top-rating programs of last year, with 4,118,000 tuning in when NSW finally returned the shield. A further 3.965 million witnessed South Sydney's drought-breaking premiership win against Canterbury. The fact that Nine's Sunday afternoon games are shown live – something not negotiated in the last contract – is another reason why the rights values will rise for the next deal. The NRL will also clarify its position on expansion by the end of the year, with Smith believing broadcasters will up the ante if there was a team in south-east Queensland.
The Ten Network, narrowly pipped by Nine last time, is likely to again be in the mix after experiencing a ratings spike during its Big Bash cricket telecasts.
"If you track Channel Ten's share price since they lost the AFL, it's been going downwards the whole time," Smith said.
"This time they have to get some AFL or NRL games. Without them, they are in trouble."
Satellite broadcaster Sky paid a mammoth £4.2 billion to retain the rights to the English Premier League, a pointer to the value placed upon marquee sporting assets. The great unknown is the worth of digital rights, with consumers increasingly expected to watch live football on devices in the future.
"That could be [digital rights holder] Telstra or it could be broader than that," Smith said.
"Down the track, there will be what I call the disrupters, it could be google or Netflix or somebody else coming into the marketplace as well."
The NRL is also exploring strategies such as playing the games in quarters to allow broadcasters more advertising windows.
