DEVELOPERS in Redland City will have about 18,000 less people to build houses for over the next two decades, according to the latest state government population forecasts.
The Queensland Treasury document, out this month, forecasts a drop in the city's population to a meagre growth of 0.9 per cent by 2041, due mainly to slowing in interstate migration to the Sunshine State.
Instead of providing for an extra 62,814 people by 2041, council has been told to cater for an extra 44,393 people.
Because of the lower expected growth, council has also been told by the state it will only need to provide 21,531 new dwellings by 2041, which is 6700 less than predicted in 2013.
The state stipulated 8444 will be units or attached dwellings and 13,087 detached dwellings or houses.
There will be 2134 fewer detached houses needed by 2041, which equates to a 14per cent drop and a 35per cent drop in units with provision for 4579.
In 2013, the state predicted Redland city's 2016 population of 157,224 would grow to 206,834 by 2041. That has now been revised down to 188,401 in 2041.
The projections were based on assumptions about changes in rates of fertility, mortality and migration.
Mayor Karen Williams welcomed the revised forecasts and said she would ask for council support to adjust the Redland Draft City Plan 2015, which is still under review, to reflect the new forecasts.
She said the new figures meant less pressure on areas such as South East Thornlands and a need for developments that met demand for family-friendly detached housing.
Cr Williams said the lower population forecasts were across South East Queensland but Redland's growth was still the lowest of its neighbours.
She castigated dissenting councillors and said those serious about dealing with inappropriate development should have supported Toondah Harbour, Weinam Creek and Shoreline, which all take the pressure off inappropriate types of development.
“None of us wants to see over-development, but when the federal government and state government accept population growth, the pressure is going to be on each and every council," she said.
"Leadership of council needs to be innovative in how it attracts the infrastructure. Redlands can only manage growth, it can’t stop it.”
Mayoral candidate Greg Underwood said the lower population forecast would not make much difference to the shape of the city in the long term.
"In time, there will be some other predictions to come out as trends and governments change but the effect on the ground will be the same as what the 2006 planning scheme allows," he said.
"I'm not one to always support the state's targets but the council has demonstrated that it could actually achieve the previous forecasts and, therefore, that's what council did.
"But the marketability of some of the medium density was not there in the planning scheme so the only outcome would be to end up with a shortfall.
"If there's nothing in these figures that will change the shape of the city, why bother with political grandstanding?
"I welcome the fact that Mayor Williams now wants to revisit the draft City Plan – something that I have been advocating all along. It is flawed and needs to reflect the concerns and values of the community. After all, most of the 6400 submissions from the community say it’s not good enough."
He said developments Toondah Harbour, Weinam Creek and Shoreline were all outside the 2006 planning scheme and would only add to council's traffic and amenity woes.
Cr Williams said Mr Underwood would be aware that, in fact, Toondah Harbour, Weinam Creek and Shoreline were in the town plan and would remain in the plan.
“Despite his opposition to his own plan, he is yet to articulate to the community how he proposes to change it, as I understand that he did not personally lodge a submission to the draft City Plan review that was widely consulted last year," Cr Williams said.