1. Origin opener must be won by NSW
Winning at ANZ Stadium on Wednesday night is vital for the Blues as history shows the team that wins Origin I usually goes on to win the series. Of NSW's 14 series wins, they won the opening game in 12 and only came back from a first-up defeat to claim the shield in 1994 and 2005. Queensland have managed to do so on five occasions since 1982, including three times during their eight years of domination – 2006, 2008 and 2013. They won first-up in 14 series wins. The statistics show the importance of NSW's missed field goal opportunities in last year's series opening 11-10 loss at ANZ Stadium.
2. Blues not only ones thankful Queensland banned curfew breakers
If Anthony Milford, Ben Hunt, Dylan Napa, Valentine Holmes, Cameron Munster, Jarrod Wallace, Edrick Lee and Chris Grevsmuhl weren't suspended from Origin for breaking curfew at January's Emerging Origin squad camp, it is certain some would be playing on Wednesday night. That is a scary thought not only for NSW coach Laurie Daley but also those players in the Queensland team likely to make way for them next year. Nate Myles will be under pressure from Napa, Milford and Hunt are breathing down Cooper Cronk's neck and Holmes or Munster could easily claim a spot in the outside backs.
3. Josh Morris tipped for a big performance
The hardest selection decision Daley had to make was leaving out Josh Morris after deciding to switch Josh Dugan to right centre so he could include a ball-playing fullback in Matt Moylan.
Josh Morris scores a try during Origin II last year in Melbourne. Photo: Getty Images
Morris has been a regular member of the Blues squad since 2009 and Daley remembers his heroics in the opening match in 2014 when he pushed off medical staff after suffering a knee injury to get back in the defensive line and make a try-saving tackle on Greg Inglis. Morris' twin Brett also played for 60 minutes with a dislocated shoulder. WIth Dugan succumbing to an elbow injury, Morris has been recalled and he will want to make it hard for Daley to drop him again.
4. Calm before the storm for the match officials
Gerard Sutton and Ben Cummins are the men appointed to control Origin I but they have hardly received a mention from the rival camps before the match. That is almost certain to change after the series opener, with every decision made by the men in the middle and their colleagues in the NRL bunker set to be debated by the players, commentators, media and fans. Given the passion Origin evokes, the view north of the border will differ to that in NSW on almost every call and either Daley or his Maroons counterpart Kevin Walters will demand a meeting with the referees before Game II.
5. Blues chasing points
After three years of trying to limit the number of points Queensland score, the Blues have chosen a team with more emphasis on attack rather than defence. It is a gamble by Daley as halves James Maloney and Adam Reynolds are not regarded as strong defenders and will be targets for Maroons playmaker Johnathan Thurston to direct his forwards at.
Defensive weakness: Adam Reynolds. Photo: Getty Images
Daley has resisted the temptation to pick Beau Scott as a bodyguard for the pair as he believes NSW need to score at least 14 points to win. The Blues have won on the two occasions they have done so under Daley's charge, while their two triumphs in the 2014 series that ended Queensland's eight-year domination were 12-8 and 6-4 scorelines.
6. The best thing about Queensland winning
Queensland captain Cameron Smith will become the most capped player in Origin history when he makes his 37th appearance for the Maroons on Wednesday night. It is fitting that the man whose record he surpasses is Darren Lockyer, as Smith has done a wonderful job in maintaining the standards of his predecessor as Queensland and Australian captain. Regardless of which state you support, there can be no doubting that Smith has been a great ambassador for the game – and the tone and quality of his post-match speeches almost make a Maroons win bearable. Teammates may joke that he has the body of an architect and not an NRL player, but he possesses a brilliant footballing mind and is arguably the best hooker to have played the game.
