Marriage equality advocates have quietly established campaign infrastructure for a plebiscite on same-sex marriage, despite a potentially damaging schism affecting the "yes" group.
The divide is between those who want to stop the plebiscite at any cost – even if it means delaying marriage equality into the never-never – and those who now view a public vote as almost inevitable.
Both sides of the debate are trying to unite their troops before the likely public vote.
The "no" side has struggled to form a working coalition in time to lobby Attorney-General George Brandis on the plebiscite's structure, but the "yes" side has developed a campaign vehicle called Australians 4 Equality, which aims to build a winning coalition and raise funds. It has staff, a rudimentary website, an office in Sydney and a network of volunteers.
On Monday, Australian Marriage Equality will launch a petition and media blitz asking that no public funding be given to either side of the campaign. By contrast, the Australian Christian Lobby is demanding $15 million in taxpayers' money.
While AME remains vehemently opposed to a plebiscite, which it regards as damaging and unnecessary, it has been carefully preparing to fight and win a campaign.
But others within the pro-equality movement are dedicating their energy to stopping the plebiscite, at the risk of delaying same-sex marriage to a future term of government.
One plausible scenario is that Labor, the Greens and others block a plebiscite in the Senate, hoping the Coalition will agree to a parliamentary vote. Veteran gay rights campaigner Rodney Croome this week wrote on Facebook: "I have come to the view that it will be easier to achieve a cross-party free vote, or encourage Liberals to the cross the floor [sic], than it will be to conduct a plebiscite fairly and have a 'yes' vote implemented quickly."
That view is not shared by other leaders of the pro-equality movement, such as AME chairman Alex Greenwich. They are not convinced it will be possible to block a plebiscite in the Senate – but even so, they do not believe the Coalition would then accede to a free vote. A key factor in that reasoning is the greater prominence of the Nationals within the Coalition party room following the election.
The danger would be that reform is stalled and momentum for change is lost.
Unlike the doomed republic referendum, where republicans were divided over a proposed constitutional model, it is expected that marriage equality supporters will ultimately unite when the campaign begins.
"If we do have a plebiscite we're going to need to have a campaign that brings all the supporters together," Mr Greenwich told Fairfax Media. "We totally agree that a plebiscite is unnecessary. But if one is imposed upon us, we have to get ready."
To that end, the Sydney-based outfit Australians 4 Equality has quietly engaged the corporate sector, unions and community groups such as the Country Women's Association. Australians 4 Equality is co-chaired by prominent Canberra businessman Tom Snow, and employs about five full-time staff in Sydney and has a network of volunteers. One staff member is Tiernan Brady, who steered Ireland's "yes" campaign and has been brought in to replicate that success.
Meanwhile, same-sex marriage opponents are trying to cobble together a formal coalition. The key figures will include Australian Christian Lobby director Lyle Shelton, Marriage Alliance founder and former ACT Liberal president Tio Faulkner and the Australian Marriage Forum's David van Gend. The "no" side is also likely to face divisions about tactics and how hard to campaign on unrelated issues such as children and the nuclear family.
"It's a bit tricky for us at the moment," Mr Shelton told Fairfax Media. "We're still coalescing. That process is under way. We're working to make sure we're meeting the necessary time frames."
Senator Brandis has indicated he plans to bring a proposal to Cabinet within the next few weeks. But Mr Shelton called on the Attorney-General not to do so until he has consulted with the as-yet-unformed "no" coalition.
"I would expect that he wouldn't [proceed]," Mr Shelton said. "I would expect that he would want to be consulting equally with both sides."
Meanwhile, Mr Croome's future as a director of AME is uncertain. He is working closely with Shelley Argent, a spokeswoman for Parents and Friends of Lesbians and Gays, and former AME deputy director Ivan Hinton, on another new organisation called Just Equal.
Last week it launched a survey asking members of the gay and lesbian community whether they would rather delay marriage equality to avoid a divisive and damaging public vote.
Ms Argent told the ABC: "Somebody said to me, it's better to wait than to be walking over bodies as you walk down the aisle, and I think that's very true."
Mr Brady, by contrast, said advocates had to seize the day. "We don't get to pick the cards we're dealt," he said. "What we do have to do is make sure that we win them."
A Liberal strategist familiar with the matter, and a strong supporter of same-sex marriage, called on marriage equality campaigners to unite behind a common goal.
"The problem they have at the moment is they don't have a leader for the 'yes' campaign and there is argy-bargy over who that person should be," he told Fairfax Media.
"We now have a huge opportunity to unite. If they don't, they risk fracturing the gay community once again."
