Patrick Dangerfield, then daylight. That's the overwhelming expectation for Monday night's Brownlow Medal count.
But could there be a surprise winner? Or at least a smokey capable of giving him a fright?
Here's a selection of players who could poll well enough to make provide some suspense when the best and fairest players in the game come together for football's big night at Crown Palladium.
Max Gawn, Melbourne
UBET: $126
The big, bearded Demon has been impossible to miss in 2016, and made the All-Australian team for the first time. But no ruckman has won football's highest individual honour since Scott Wynd in 1992, and as North Melbourne's Todd Goldstein learnt last year, when he polled just 18 votes, big men struggle to break into the umpires' thoughts. Still, the Demons won enough games this year and Gawn was a barometer for them, forming a potent ruck-rover combination with Jack Viney. Gawn played 22 games for the Dees in 2016, kicking 16 goals and racking up 928 hitouts.
Jack Steven, St Kilda
UBET: $67
Steven's form helped propel the Saints to the cusp of the finals. He was always around the ball, an eye-catching presence in the improving St Kilda midfield, who is sure to have caught the umpires' attention. Steven won his third best and fairest with the Saints in 2016 - that's three of the last four, though he has not yet played 150 games - but he did miss out on All-Australian selection. He kicked 14 goals for the year and picked up 615 touches.
Saint Jack: Could the three-time best-and-fairest winner make a run for the Brownlow? Photo: Getty Images
Josh Kennedy, Sydney
UBET: $101
The powerful Swans midfielder is a big reason for their ascent to another grand final, but his big problem will be that teammates Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker, are likely to steal votes from him. A former best and fairest at the Swans, Kennedy has averaged more than 30 disposals this season. He polled the most Brownlow votes for the Swans in 2015, with 25.
Swans star Josh Kennedy. Photo: Getty Images
Zach Merrett, Essendon
UBET: $251
He's the ultimate outsider, but the only Essendon player who is likely to get any love from the umpires. He was the Bombers' best and fairest and stepped up in the absence of the side's suspended stars, which included being given the captaincy towards the end of the season, as a stand in. He'll of course be held back by the fact Essendon only won three games.
Young Bomber Zach Merrett has impressed this season. Photo: AFL Media/Getty Images
Adam Treloar, Collingwood
UBET: $126
His first year in Magpie colours was a success, noticeable especially when captain Scott Pendlebury was injured early in the season. He was his new club's most consistent midfielder in an inconsistent season. Over the season, the former Giant racked up 139 tackles, 673 disposals and 13 goals. At just 23, he's notched a total of 12 Brownlow votes over his career but in 2016 has averaged more than 30 disposals and six tackles per game.
Former Giant Adam Treloar.
