It's the question that's repeated in every office kitchen until late March. And in the days after the AFL trade period it has particular gravitas.
"Who'll make the eight next season?"
Obviously, it will all come down to ladder positions at the end of the of the 2017 home and away season, but that doesn't prevent us debating the issue now.
So, here I go. My credibility is on the line.
Minor premiers Sydney had a quiet trade period. They lost gun midfielder Tom Mitchell for a first-round pick while Toby Nankervis made his way to Punt Road. Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills will only get better but how much more improvement do the Swans actually have in them?
The team they belted in the preliminary final – Geelong – will have been disappointed not to make the grand final, given the inclusion of Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield.
Josh Caddy was the most notable loss. After initially balking at a deal that could have seen Brett Deledio wind up at the Cattery, Caddy eventually found his way to Richmond. He was on the verge of being dropped in September, but many at Geelong see him as a big loss to their midfield depth. Zach Tuohy adds some versatility to the back six, but the inclusion of Aaron Black has to be questioned. The pressure is on to improve.
The two biggest movers in 2017 may well be tipped to be Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney. With the previously unthinkable trades of club legends Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, many fans of the brown-and-gold are still screaming for answers. The Hawks may not win as many games as they did last year, but there's no way the brilliant tactical mind of Alastair Clarkson will let them slip drastically.
By the way, Jaeger O'Meara could be in the best five players in the game if he gets his knee right. Big "if", I know. Oh and Tom Mitchell is a gun.
The Giants, meantime, are only getting bigger and Brett Deledio may just be the difference. The forward six in round one next year could see Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Rory Lobb as the three talls, to be joined by Steve Johnson, Toby Greene and Deledio. Now that's ominous. They should win more games than anyone else next year.
It's hard to believe we haven't even mentioned reigning premiers the Western Bulldogs. They will add strong forwards Stewart Crameri and Travis Cloke to the line-up. Not bad for a side that won the flag from seventh after being ravaged by injuries. They should be all but a lock for a double chance.
Adelaide and West Coast are so hard to judge. At times, the Crows looked unbeatable during the home and away season, but were really found wanting for the contest in the heat of September. The Eagles, who were at times labelled flat track bullies, need to get rid of that tag and start winning away from home. Sam Mitchell adds obvious class and poise to their midfield, but West Coast need to be far more consistent away from home.
After winning their first nine games and just scraping into the eight, North Melbourne could be on the slide next year.
They go into 2017 without Daniel Wells, Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo. They are gaping holes on their list that will take more than one year to fill.
So, who's knocking on the door to get into the eight? It may sound harsh, but only four of the next 10 jump out as teams that should be genuine threats to play finals in 2017.
St Kilda are exciting. They caused big teams some major headaches this year and add depth to their midfield with Jack Steele and Koby Stevens, while Jake Carlisle could be absolutely anything as a new recruit in his return from a doping suspension. They will be breathing down the neck of September.
Melbourne are primed for their first taste of finals footy since 2006. First, one of the most talked about young players in the game, Jesse Hogan, recommitted to the Demons after strong rumours of a return to Western Australia.
Then, out of nowhere, they have a four-time premiership player and gun midfielder Jordan Lewis fall in their laps. Thanks, Clarko.
Melbourne will see 2017 as a failure if they don't play finals.
It's not often you look ahead to a new season and see the teams that finished 16th and 18th as finals contenders.
But both Essendon and Fremantle are unique circumstances.
The Bombers have done a remarkable job in keeping the players they did and now, on paper, will have a strong list for next season.
The big question is, what kind of impact will players serving a 12-month doping ban have? Can everything just go back to normal? Tough.
Freo's year was just a write-off. Scrunch it up and throw it in the bin. Forget about it. Well, sort of. Ross Lyon tried new things and it all fell apart.
But he's too much of a documented genius to make those mistakes twice in a row. Add Brad Hill, Cam McCarthy, Joel Hamling, Shane Kersten and a returning Nat Fyfe to their list and suddenly the Dockers look dangerous again.
Sam McClure's 2017 top 8
1. GWS
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. Melbourne
6. Hawthorn
7. Geelong
8. West Coast
