Past performance is generally held to be the best predictor of future outcomes, particularly in sport.
Just not where junior competitions are concerned.
Which, given the failures of Australia to qualify for recent Under-20 and Under-17 World Cups, is probably a good thing.
If that pattern of non-qualification at junior levels is repeated now that many of those players are coming of age as seniors, then the likelihood of the Socceroos making it to Qatar 2022 and to subsequent World Cups is limited.
Fortunately for Australia - a nation where, the Golden Generation aside, players seem to only hit their stride from their mid-20s onwards - that failure to make it to under-age World Cups may not necessarily prove a harbinger of future failure.
But it could, which is why alarm bells are ringing at FFA headquarters and certainly amongst the junior coaches who know how hard young Australians are now finding it to compete against the best in the Asian region, never mind the best in the world.
It's not, as FFA head of National Performance, Luke Casserly, points out, because of a lack of players with natural ability.
There are more youngsters playing soccer now than ever before, certainly than in the early 1990s when teams chock full of talented teens like Mark Bosnich, Kevin Muscat, Tony Popovic, Craig Moore, Paul Okon, Ned Zelic, Harry Kewell, Mark Viduka and their contemporaries were capable of not just making up the numbers at junior World Cups but sometimes getting through to the knock out stages or deep into the tournament.
Its not because the current generation, at least at the elite level, lack the facilities or infrastructure these days.
All those things are better, for the most part, than they were 25 years ago.
Ditto sports science, medical evaluation and analysis of performance.
Yet as the current Under-20 World Cup picks up pace in South Korea, the Young Socceroos can only look on and feel a pang of envy that they didn't qualify. Not since 2013 has a team of Australian under-20 players made it to the World Cup, while the Under-2017s have not participated in their age group World Cup since 2015.
"It is very disappointing and we would love to be there for a number of reasons. But the most important thing to remember, although we would want to win every game we ever play, is that we ultimately want to be successful at senior level. That is the goal, rather than be hugely impressive at junior level with players who then don't develop," says Casserly.
Well, yes, that's acceptable mitigation, but it's not sufficient excuse.
Casserly knows that scrutiny on all levels of Australia's performance is growing, with fans, critics and commentators all becoming increasingly concerned about the lack of achievement.
So, if it's not that we don't have the right number of players, and we certainly don't lack for facilities or planning, then why can't we compete?
Is it as simple as the fact that other nations, particularly in Asia, are spending more money and preparing better than Australia does?
Is it that their players are all getting bigger and stronger than they used to be, eroding Australia's traditional physical advantage?
Is it that they put more importance and value on success at junior level, reasoning that they have more chance of winning an under-age World Cup than they ever do of winning the real thing?
According to Casserly, all of the above are factors.
But the two biggest issues Australia's youth sides face are money - or the lack of it - and the amount of serious game time at senior level that young players now get.
A-League sides are mandated to have a specific number of under-20 players on their roster, but the simple truth is that very few get selected as starters.
The A-League is purely results-based and coaches' futures are determined by their ladder position, not on how many youngsters they can guide through the system and perhaps make money for the club by selling later on.
That limits the opportunity for game time for all but the most outstanding youngsters, and when it comes to tough qualifiers against Asian rivals, quite often Australian players just don't have the game smarts, experience and in-match know-how to get the job done.
With clubs allowed to sign five foreigners, all of whom should be starting 11 players, opportunities are limited in the first place, although Casserly, who himself came through the NSL system in the late 1980s and 1990s at Marconi, does not advocate diminishing the number of foreigners as an instant solution.
"I wouldn't like to see the numbers increased, but even if we reduced it to four, that would only be nine extra spots in Australia for other players, and not all clubs would sign younger ones."
So is the answer then A-League expansion or the creation of a second division?
Yes, is Casserly's speedy answer, explaining that in the past greater opportunities led to more mature players.
He himself got the chance to play first team football at Marconi as a teenager, as did several others like Okon , Mark Schwarzer and Steve Corica.
Back in those days there were more clubs, and obviously more chances for kids to show their worth.
"That was a key difference, say, in those teams that did well in the 1990s. They had players like Kevin Muscat, who had started at Sunshine George Cross, then played at Heidelberg before going to South Melbourne. He had had lots of experience against senior players in tough games where competitive points were at stake.
"We had a similar thing at Marconi, and there were plenty of others who came into those qualifiers and World Cups with all that experience. Our kids these days just don't get that."
Money is also an issue.
"When I was coming through there was enough money to take us away on tours. We would travel to South America and play against all sorts of teams. It gave us match experience, improved us, and made us more cohesive when we got to tournaments. Now there isn't the finance to do that."
So then, the answer seems simple: expand the A-League, or create a second division so that more of Australia's better younger players get the chance to play at a higher level in meaningful competition to hothouse their development.
Just like the NSL did.
Sometimes you might need to go back to the future to progress ...
