Much as the AFL celebrates a competition in which anyone can win on a given day, the damnable corollary is that anyone can lose. For that reason as much as any other, the Western Bulldogs Cinderella premiership will turn back into a pumpkin at midnight on Friday night, long before the 2017 ball even begins.
Should we be surprised? Only if, as the Bulldogs succumbed to low-flying Fremantle in this round last year, we knew the Dogs were going to win the premiership. Last year, much went right, at the right time. This year, they went wrong, at the wrong time. Last year, for instance, the Dogs were plus-three in games won by less than three goals. This year, they are break-even. That's the whole difference between seasons, right there.
Not that they are making excuses. "We haven't been a formidable opponent week to week," coach Luke Beveridge said after Port Adelaide all but shut the door on the fairytale in Ballarat last Saturday. "I think nearly everyone who's above us has got us." Indeed, the Dogs have beaten only Sydney, Richmond and Essendon of the teams in the eight, and have lost twice to peripheral West Coast.
Premiership hangover? President Peter Gordon won't even say the words, let alone countenance the idea, saying it is a simplistic populist construct. Resting on laurels? No. Hunter lost as hunted? Nup.
"Competitive balance policies," said Gordon. "The competition has improved." Look at Brisbane, he said. They lie bottom, but this month have given frights to the Bulldogs and Melbourne, meantime beating Gold Coast by 10 goals. In that context, "I'm not even sure if the right question is 'what's gone wrong'," he added.
Much as you might search for esoteric explanations, the likeliest are grimly prosaic. Injuries have dogged the Dogs, in terms both of when they struck and who. Last year, the half-back line was the source of all that was good for the Dogs. This year, the starting back six from the grand final have missed more games than they have played. Against GWS three weeks ago, none appeared.
Others missed significant chunks of the season, or started late and did not get going. Tom Campbell, Jordan Roughead, Mitch Honeychurch, Josh Dunkley, Clay Smith and Tory Dickson all have had disrupted seasons. You can throw in bouts of depression for Tom Boyd and Travis Cloke. The Dogs never settled.
Jason Johannisen struggled with taggers, Tom Liberatore struggled period, averaging merely 17 touches and spending time out of the team. Last year, the Dogs were first on the ladder for contested possession, disposal efficiency and clearance differential. This year, they're mid-table in all three. Did they fall away, or did the rest get better? The received wisdom is that the competition continued to improve.
The forward line disappeared without trace. The Dogs work the ball forward often enough, but might as well not. They are 17th in the comp for goals per inside 50. Last year, Jake Stringer kicked 42 goals and Dickson 40. This year, Stringer is the leading goalkicker with merely 24. Cloke was an idea that has not worked, Boyd a work that has not progressed. Sometimes, Marcus Bontempelli temped up forward, which would have been fine if he had himself kicking it to him.
The Dogs have scored fewer points than Brisbane, North Melbourne and Collingwood, and only barely more than Gold Coast and Hawthorn. They are on track for their second-lowest scoring season for 20 years. Scoring across the competition is trending down, but that is no consolation.
The overall impression the Dogs have made this season is of a fire that would not catch. There was a four-win splutter in July, but that was it. Beveridge does not shirk it. "We've had 11 wins, and we've scratched those out." he said. "That's where we're at at the moment."
Gordon does not deny that this season has been markedly different to last. When so many had spent so much of their lives striving for the premiership that always seemed just out of reach, and then suddenly materialised in their disbelieving hands, it was bound to have an effect. Membership was up 20 per cent, crowds were up 20 per cent, and all had to be serviced, spreading the club more thinly.
Then there was the AFLW, whose roaring success created its own logistical problems. It was not without humour. One Saturday night at the Whitten Oval, 5000 were expected, but 8000 came, and the chips ran out just after quarter-time, and Gordon, who was manning the deep frier, dashed to a local supermarket and cleaned out the freezer shelves of frozen chips. A check-out operator scanned and loaded them silently into three trolleys, but after scanning the 38th packet could not resist. "Hungry, are we?" she asked.
The Dogs are hungry still. Beveridge noted that the list was nearly at full health again, albeit too late. Next season, when Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd are safely stored away in legend, they will be in the younger demographic, still with plenty to prove.
They could take heart from Hawthorn, which won an unexpected flag in 2008, missed the finals the next year but ultimately established a dynasty. Gordon won't be lulled, saying that was a club with plenty of winning behind it already. The Dogs would chart their own course. "We're not Hawthorn, we're the Western Bulldogs," he said.
Besides, there is a caveat. The merest flicker remains in this season, hope only a partisan could entertain, but hope none the less. Remembering how they realised the impossible last season, Gordon said: "We figure if we can get in, we can win four games again. If you quote me, make sure you put that in."
In the interests of a nail-biting last round, we're happy to oblige.
