REDLANDS will be one of the knife-edge seats to watch east of Brisbane in the forthcoming state election.
The November 25 election will be the first under new electoral boundaries which were decided earlier this year. Parties and independent candidates will also oppose each other for the first time in 93 seats as opposed to the 89 seats that have been contested since 1986.
The LNPs Mark Robinson is deemed to be safe in Oodgeroo – the old seat of Cleveland – and similarly Labor’s Don Brown in Capalaba, although One Nation’s Paul Taylor thinks he is a chance there.
Matt McEachan’s seat of Redlands is held for the LNP by just a 1.4 per cent margin and he has lost some of his best conservative booths to the adjoining seat of Springwood held by Labor’s Mick de Brenni.
Mr de Brenni is also on a slender margin and he will not be helped by picking up conservative booths in the Mount Cotton and Sheldon areas where Redland’s Cr Julie Talty is challenging him.
Mr McEachan is taking on Labor’s Kim Richards who has developed a local profile after unsuccessfully standing against the LNP’s federal MP Andrew Laming in Bowman.
Mr McEachan also is up against One Nation’s Jason Quick and former LNP member turned independent Peter Dowling whose efforts will dilute the primary conservative vote and likely muddy preference flows.
Mr Brown is being challenged by the LNP’s Cameron Leafe while Mr Robinson opposes Labor’s Tony Austin.
Another wild card for all candidates is that voters will go to the polls under a compulsory preferential voting system, meaning all ballot card squares must be filled in.
This could see some unplanned preference swings depending on the number of people who simply “number off” ballot cards.
Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams has said that although he could not see Mr Dowling having a major impact, his and the preferences of Mr Quick and the Greens candidate would have a major bearing on results.
“I think Dowling’s history, shall we say his fall into igmony (via a sexting incident), is too recent,” he said. “I expect he would still have some small personal following but you would think he would be in the two to eight per cent range. You certainly would not bet on him to get into double figures.”
Dr Williams said, like the state result, the seat of Redlands was too close to call although this could change during the campaign.
Influencing the vote was on again, off again One Nation support.
Dr Williams said One Nation was dead in the water until leader Pauline Hanson’s appearance in federal parliament in August wearing a burka which brought supporters back.
Dr Williams, a Griffith University scientist, said One Nation might get a slightly better following in the bayside than in Brisbane but would not perform nearly as strongly as it would in regional areas where it would find support on issues like immigration, political correctness and same-sex marriage.
A decision critical to the electoral state-wide outcome was if the LNP decided to strike a deal with One Nation.
Dr Williams said the Queensland government had been average and did not have enough economic runs on the board but confusing the election outcome was that opposition leader Tim Nicholls was polling poorly.
Mr Nicholls was articulate, experienced and urbane but could not get traction which was possibly due to his association with the voter backlash against former LNP premier Campbell Newman and his role as treasurer in that government.
Mr Nicholls was keen to get on the front foot this week, saying Queensland was at a crossroads.
He said the Labor government had ground to a halt and everyone was paying the price. He cited job losses, high electricity prices and cuts to infrastructure spending as major election issues.
“(Premier) Annastacia Palaszczuk’s softly, softly approach is failing Queenslanders,” he said.
Dr Williams said Mr Dowling might play a spoiler role in Redlands but, like the statewide result, it was one of the hardest elections to pick in recent history.
“We’ll have more MPs, the redistribution and seat name changes. We’re really in the dark,” he said.
As well, about one third of voters tended to go for smaller parties these days as opposed to 40 years ago when it was just 10 per cent.
