Here's a scenario: Carlton are going poorly and by midyear they know things are not going to get better quickly.
Sure, so far this is an unexceptional scenario, but here's the change; the AFL introduces a midyear trade period. Suddenly doors start to slide in this hypothetical world and Carlton and Adelaide wonder if they should revisit that Bryce Gibbs trade they had toyed with months earlier.
Adelaide are second on the ladder and can nearly touch the flag. Carlton are second bottom and will do anything to expedite the rebuild. Adelaide thinks they might be a Bryce Gibbs from a flag. Carlton knows Bryce Gibbs won't win them a flag this year.
So they talk and a deal is done. Gibbs finishes the year as a Crow and Adelaide win the flag. Without Gibbs, Carlton sink to 18th on the ladder and receive pick No.1 in the draft to add to the picks they received for Gibbs. Adelaide give up more to get Gibbs midyear - when they are right in the hunt for the flag - than they would at the end of the year when who knows what might happen.
And the Blues have not been paying Gibbs for the second half of the season so they have saved a bit of cash to splash about.
Here's another scenario: Gold Coast reach round 10 in 2018 and they are yet to play a game at home because of the Commonwealth Games and they are also yet to win a game.
Tom Lynch is the full-forward star who is a free agent at year's end and they worry he might leave. Richmond are on top of the ladder and chasing back-to-back flags when Jack Riewoldt goes down injured and is out for the rest of the year.
The Tigers' forward line is built around one key tall and a fleet of smalls. But they need the key tall for without one the flag chances look thin.
So the Tigers chase Lynch. The Suns know if Lynch goes at year's end as a free agent they'll get a first-round draft pick for him as compensation. But who knows where that will be: mid first round? End of first round? After their first pick? So what would they get if he went now to a desperate club?
The Tigers are that desperate club. They throw in two first-round draft picks, a second-rounder and a good player for Lynch. The Tigers pay a premium but they win back-to-back flags. The Suns get much more than they would otherwise.
These scenarios might not be so hypothetical in the near future (only the names and clubs will change). The mid-season trade period, presented as a serious consideration by the AFL, is a deal the AFL will do because it makes sense to do it.
Like any trade period, clubs are not compelled to do anything, this change just gives them scope to do so.
The AFL does not need to reach too far back into its past to remember the VFL midyear draft, so the idea of in-season movement of players is not new and does not hack at traditions.
There is a difference, too, between the scenarios above and tanking. Tanking, in the police-able sense, is when clubs try to manipulate in-game to not to win. This is list management of the type when a club sends players off for surgery to be ready for next year after this year is deemed effectively over.
The salary cap consequences of a mid-season trade would be messy but manageable. Can you trade only if you can squeeze the new player into your existing salary cap or would you be allowed to go into credit in the remaining part of the year as long as you reduced your cap by a commensurate amount the next year?
The timing of the such a trade period offers a solution to a perennial AFL problem - the bye round.
The AFL has struggled with the structure and timing of the bye for years. The latest incarnation staggers a single round's worth of games over three weeks. It is an unsatisfying arrangement, like being put on a diet for three weeks. Or worse, Feb Fast.
A one-week trade period could take place during a single clear bye weekend. The post-season trade period is becoming as big a part of the AFL calendar as the game itself with the interest especially of the fantasy football generation acute. The trade period would satisfactorily fill the bye round void.
The ability to secure a replacement player to turn around and reinvigorate a season sliding into the mire is a compelling reason for change.
The mid-season trade period makes sense. It is a trade the AFL should do.
