'It seems like panic': Turnbull's parliamentary no-show

The announcement that the House of Representatives would not sit in the week beginning November 27 was news to many government MPs. Not only did the official notice to MPs from whip Nola Marino land in their inboxes some 40 minutes after the Leader of the House told the media, the decision to cancel a week of Parliament was tightly held within the Coalition.

While the parliamentary schedule can shift, it is almost unheard of to scrap a week. The last time this happened was in the wake of the Bali bombings, in 2005. Fairfax Media understands the highly unusual decision was taken by the Coalition's leadership group, which includes Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, Treasurer Scott Morrison, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Pyne, rather than the full cabinet.

Even some cabinet members had just an hour's notice, with the decision presented as a fait accompli with just a fig leaf's worth of consultation.

Officially, the government argues it is holding the lower house back a week, until December 4, because the Senate is unlikely to pass the same-sex marriage bill before November 30. It also points out that neither Barnaby Joyce nor John Alexander, who currently face byelections, could possibly be back to boost the government's numbers by December 4 (so, nothing to see here).

"The decision about the sittings is just common sense," Turnbull explained on Tuesday, while visiting the Sydney Growers Market in the city's west.

Other frontbenchers, such as Bishop, have also backed the idea, as if it happens all the time. She argues nothing has been cancelled, just delayed by seven days, as the government maintains sittings could spill over into the following week (starting December 11), if same-sex marriage is not resolved.

Good reasons to stay away

But given the widely-held expectation the same-sex marriage bill can be passed by the House in the four days from December 4, this explanation rings hollow.

And the hollowness only grows when you do the political arithmetic. By staying away from Canberra next week, the government will only have to endure four days, rather than eight, in which it is reduced to 73 members (Liberal speaker Tony Smith's 74th vote is only used in the event of a tie) versus 74 votes for Labor and the crossbench in the House of Representatives.

It also means the date for lower house MPs to officially disclose their citizenship status is pushed back from December 1 (the Senate's disclosure date) to 8pm on Tuesday, December 5. Parliamentary officials will then need to process all the paperwork before it can be put online, and are not able to say when this will complete. Although, it is expected to take at least a day.

The calculation made by the Coalition's leadership group seems plain: avoid losing a vote on the floor of the House at all costs. And delay for as long as possible the prospect of more lower house government MPs having to quit because of dual citizenship issues while Parliament is still sitting.

Despite the high level survival tactics, behind the scenes government MPs have been expressing dismay. One told Fairfax Media of their shock upon hearing of the cancellation via Sky News.

"It seems like panic," said another MP. "In this game you put on a brave face, you front up and present an air of confidence. This seems like Turnbull is scared of the party room and the Parliament."

Turnbull's enemies speak out

Unsurprisingly, Turnbull's enemies have wasted no time in calling him out on the move.

"You might not always want to go back to Parliament, but you always have to go back to Parliament, because that's your job," Tony Abbott told Sky News in a cosy interview with his former chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin.

Labor has also enjoyed a week-long fiesta of accusing the Prime Minister of being a scaredy-cat. As Bill Shorten gleefully told reporters on the Queensland state election trail on Wednesday: "He's frightened of his backbench. He's frightened of the electorate. He's frightened of Parliament."

Labor initially suggested that it would bring all its lower house MPs to Canberra next week, to make a show of turning up to "work". But once questions were raised about the cost of this to the taxpayer, the opposition quickly backed away from the idea. Now it will only bring shadow cabinet to Parliament for a routine meeting.

Illustration: Richard Giliberto

Nonetheless, Labor continues to make hay over the decision, saying there are 53 bills the House could be looking at next week. This includes bills responding to the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse and those around tougher regulations for bank executives and counter-terrorism financing.

Then there's the bank inquiry

There's also the renegade push to establish an inquiry into the banking sector swirling around in the mix.

Nationals senator Barry O'Sullivan has broken with the government's opposition to the probe and has released a private members' bill for Parliament to set up a year-long commission of inquiry. An absolute majority of 76 votes will be needed to suspend standing orders and debate the bill in the House; a simple majority of 74 votes would then see it passed.

If it is brought on in the week beginning December 4, Nationals MP George Christensen says he will cross the floor to back the bill in the lower house. That means a Labor-crossbench-Christensen combination could have 75 votes. With fellow National Llew O'Brien indicating he is a 50-50 prospect to also cross the floor - and others such as Liberal MP Warren Entsch waiting in the wings - there is a very real chance the bill could also pass the lower house. What is not clear yet is whether there will be time in among a lengthy same-sex marriage debate and the citizenship disclosures.

So amid the government's claims it cancelled a week the lower house to ensure gay couples can marry as soon as possible, issues such as the banking inquiry and, possibly, a Labor push to reverse cuts to penalty rates ordered by the Fair Work Commission, would surely have factored into their "common sense".

The decision, however, makes little sense to those who study Australia's Parliament.

Australian National University professor John Uhr says the decision to ditch a week of sittings cuts into Australia's already modest sitting load. This year, there were only 19 sitting weeks scheduled - some of which were just for the Senate, or include weeks when the Senate is not sitting due to estimates hearings (Canada's lower house alone has 26 weeks planned for 2017; its Senate has 28).

"It's puny, what we already have. We rush stuff through," Uhr says.

He adds that apart from making a bad situation worse, the optics of Turnbull's call are not good. "It just looks terrible."

Won't somebody think of the caterers?

Meanwhile, the ripple effect of Turnbull's parliamentary no-show is being felt far beyond MPs and their diary managers.

Sitting weeks do not just involve noisy question times and technical legislative business. The weeks are also jam-packed with meetings and events that go on around the sidelines, as lobbyists and experts take advantage of all the decision makers in town. The last two sitting weeks before Christmas are particularly busy, with organisations flooding to Canberra to meet MPs before the end of the year. And to wine and dine each other at what seems like a never-ending lineup of festive functions.

With more than half of the Parliament not coming at the last minute, the events calendar has been thrown into disarray. The lower house crossbenchers have had to reschedule their annual Christmas drinks (complete with local cheese and muscat from Cathy McGowan's electorate), no doubt further endearing Turnbull to the group that could make or break him over the next fortnight.

Breakfasts for White Ribbon Day (preventing men's violence against women) and World AIDS Day have had to be shifted, while some organisations have simply had to cancel. The Pharmacy Guild of Australia had a formal dinner booked in the Mural Hall for about 300 people for Tuesday, with Turnbull and Shorten due to speak. With no headline speakers and most of the guests now unavailable, the event has been called off.

Our Watch, which aims to stop domestic violence, was due to have an event with MPs but is rescheduling to February. Chair Natasha Stott Despoja, while disappointed, was philosophical about the date change.

"If you schedule an event in Canberra, you know anything can change," the former senator and Democrats leader said. "This is how policy and politics work. Even though this seems unprecedented."

Other organisations are less relaxed about having to rearrange their plans at the last minute. "This is not real good, Malcolm," one group said.

Meanwhile, leadership

Leadership talk has reared its head - again. The Prime Minister with his deputy, Julie Bishop. Photo: AAP

Away from the flurry of the initial announcement, government MPs say they don't think the missed week of Parliament will hurt them in their electorates. As one MP said, voters prefer it when MPs are in the local cafe and at the school gate, not in Canberra. "I think it's white noise." Another frontbencher noted most people didn't know what the sitting calendar was, anyway, joking even their wife has no idea.

But the decision to put the House of Representatives on ice cannot be separated from Turnbull's other political woes. And of these, there are many.

Apart from a conga line of bad polls that follows the Prime Minister wherever he goes, the government is facing two byelections before the end of the year, which can't help but be viewed as mini referendums on Turnbull's leadership. Similarly, all eyes will be on the Queensland state election result on Saturday. And it is entirely possible there are more "surprises" to come on the citizenship front, too.

Then there are the leadership murmurs. On Wednesday, The Daily Telegraph reported cabinet has discussed reversing its stance on a banking royal commission in light of the threats from Christensen and others to cross the floor. While Turnbull dismissed it as "gossip," other ministers (furious about the leak) told Fairfax Media they believed whoever was pushing the story was trying to damage the Prime Minister, Morrison and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton and create chaos within the government. Bishop angrily called for an investigation, declaring she was not the source.

At the same time, the Herald Sun's Andrew Bolt was reporting a mystery MP has threatened to quit next month if the Liberal Party does not change to a more conservative leader. While an unsourced (and therefore unproven) malcontent might usually be dismissed by senior ministers as just that, in a sign of how seriously the government is taking the chatter, Bishop bought in to the story, urging the MP to talk to her or Turnbull about their concerns.

Many government MPs are eager to downplay the leadership talk as a non-event. Or mischief-making.

"It's just such a joke," said one frontbencher, who insists everyone in the partyroom - minus a few "has-beens" - is united behind Turnbull. Another said that while the citizenship fiasco is a mess, people understand it was not of the Prime Minister's making. Liberal MP Craig Kelly adds there is plenty of time for the government to recover its position in the polls before a 2019 federal election (if the election is indeed as far away as that). And there are only "one or two on [government MPs] on the margins who are getting excited".

But Fairfax Media also understands cabinet ministers have sounded out backbench MPs about who they would support if there was a need to change leaders. Despite the old chestnut that "the only poll that matters is on election day", there is keen awareness Turnbull has been on a year-long losing streak in the polls.

To be sure, there is little appetite in the government to get rid of Turnbull. There is no popular, obvious alternative, as there was in the case of the Abbott-to-Turnbull change. And MPs well understand that changing leaders is messy and always comes with costs and unforseen consequences.

But there is leadership smoke around the Prime Minister. He may not have long to put out the fire.