BOWMAN MP Andrew Laming says there is less than a one per cent chance of Queenslanders being forced into a stage four lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Mr Laming said Queensland would not follow the lead of Italy and New Zealand in confining people to their homes if the rate of new cases continued to drop off under the government's coronavirus restrictions.
He said it was not time for people to become complacent but recent trends in the data suggested the number of cases in Queensland could be prevented from passing 2000.
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"I think it (the chance of lockdown) is less than one per cent. It is all heading in the right direction, that is my message," Mr Laming said.
"I have been analysing the data daily and reporting the fact that on March 25 we turned a corner. On that date the number of new cases in Queensland went from near 30 per cent increases per day and fell to around 10 per cent.
"If we are adding less than 10 per cent each day to our caseload, what is eventually going to happen is the rate of recovery will be faster than the rate of new cases.
"At that point we have a static number of cases in the community which we can hold forever. I'm tipping that number to not go above 2000 cases in Queensland."
Mr Laming said the government could look at relaxing the measures that have been taking a toll on the economy when the data showed hospitals would not be at risk of exceeding emergency capacity.
"Looking at the bending of the curve, I'm suggesting in about three weeks we are going to hit an equilibrium point. At that stage you can look to revisit some of your lockdown measures," he said.
"One per cent of cases are going to need, we think, ventilation or an avenue into hospital for intensive care.
"One per cent of 2000 is 20 and at the moment Queensland has around 400 intensive beds. If we can cap this at 2000 we are so far south of our hospital capacity that at that point we can contemplate relaxing some of the most economically painful shutdowns.
"We are not going to go anywhere near a lockdown if what is happening in the last week continues to happen."
Mr Laming has been running a nightly live stream on his Facebook page where he is encouraging the community to continue to follow the social distancing guidelines.
He said a number of viewers had asked about the possibility of a lockdown in Australia because of what was happening elsewhere around the world.
"...We are a mile away from having to take stronger measures," Mr Laming said.
"We now need to give these things time to work. As of eight days ago, cases were on the decline.
"People need to know the pain they are going through is working and isn't hopeless.
"This is not a hopeless scenario. There are really clear signs that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
"Don't get complacent but know that what the government is doing is working and we are not doing a lockdown."
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