DESPITE Claire Richardson's strong performance in the mayoral race earlier this year, she is unlikely to crack the LNP stronghold of Oodgeroo in the October state election, political scientist Paul Williams says.
Dr Williams of Griffith University said it was a difficult election to be standing as an independent, with voters tending to stick with the major parties during times of crisis.
"The fact that (Ms Richardson) ran for mayor does give her an edge that other independents won't have (but) the seat is fairly safe for the LNP," he said.
"I would expect (incumbent) Mark Robinson to be untroubled by minor parties or independents."
Mr Robinson easily out-polled Labor at the last election and has a healthy margin of 5.7 per cent.
Ms Richardson has so far built her platform on policies of sustainability, job creation and accountability.
With a background in science and engineering, she supported development of research-based COVID-19 strategies.
"Unlike the LNP I will fight to keep Queensland borders closed until it is safe to open them," she said.
The seat of Redlands was one to watch, with Deb Frecklington and candidate Henry Pike out on the hustings seeking to beat incumbent Kim Richards.
"It's only 3.1 per cent (margin)," Dr Williams said.
"Anything under 4 per cent has to be on Deb Frecklington's radar, and Redlands has historically bumped around a lot.
"It's almost a bellwether seat ... meaning that its voters tend to be representative of the rest of Queensland.
"This is a seat the LNP could win, and must win, if it wants to form government."
He said LNP candidate Bev Walters would be hard-pressed to unseat Don Brown in the safe Labor seat of Capalaba.
The election would be a referendum on who would be the better leader to steer the state out of the pandemic.
"This election's not really going to be about air conditioning Queensland schools or overloading public hospitals," he said.
"We're really living in unprecedented times. The only thing we know is it will be a close one."
Dr Williams predicted a Labor victory, with positive public opinion of premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's COVID-19 leadership eclipsing her government's downfalls.
"Without COVID, you would say (marginal seats like Redlands) would be at high risk, given that the Palaszczuk government has a chequered history of getting economic runs on the board, it's had some ministerial scandals and it's looking for its difficult third term," he said.
"But these aren't normal circumstances. We're looking at a time where the premier, having been premier for nearly six years, is enormously popular, or at least has enormous approval of her handling of the pandemic.
"We're also in a time unusually where the business-orientated LNP is trailing Labor in terms of economic management.
"I think we're going to see Labor pick up a few extra seats and increase its lead. Seats like Redlands might not be as much of a risk as people expect."
