High chance for tropical cyclone to form off north-west Queensland coast

The Bureau of Meteorology issued an updated severe weather warning on Saturday saying a tropical low was located about 200 kilometres inside the Northern Territory and Queensland border.

The system was expected to move over Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

BoM forecaster Michael Paech said "conditions are favourable" for the system to develop into Tropical Cyclone Alfred late on Sunday and into Monday morning.

However, Mr Paech said there was "a fair bit of uncertainty" over where the system would move to once it headed back towards land, due to unpredictable condition in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

On Saturday evening, Mr Paech said the tropical low was expected to cross over Northern Territory land on Tuesday, with the chance of also affecting far north-west Queensland as well.

The severe system will lead to heavy rainfall over the warning area, which covers from Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland.

​Rainfall totals of 100 to 150 millimetres were expected for the designated area on Sunday, with the potential for thunderstorms and falls to exceed 200 millimetres close to the Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

There was also the chance of flash flooding and damaging winds with gusts up to 100 kilometres.

In the 24 hours to 9am on Saturday, 216 millimetres was recorded at Sweers Island and 161 millimetres at Burketown Post Office.

Mr Paech said once the system reached land once again and delivered the worst of the weather, it would decay rapidly and move west away from Queensland.

He encouraged those in the warning area to keep a close eye out for changes in forecasts over the next few days.

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