Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams says it is likely that Bowman MP Andrew Laming will be elected for a sixth term but the outcome could be close.
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Dr Williams said that Mr Laming should not take his seat for granted in the upcoming federal election but it would be a big ask for Labor to win.
“It would be a bit of a stretch to see him lose,” Dr Williams said.
Mr Laming is on a relatively safe margin of 7.1 per cent.
Labor has put up retired GP and Victoria Point resident Tom Baster to stand against Mr Laming.
Dr Williams’ comments come as the unofficial federal election campaign ramps up with a visit to south-east Queensland by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
It has been speculated that Mr Morrison could visit Bowman.
Dr Williams said the results would depend on the campaigns run by candidates and political parties.
“If Laming goes down it would be because of an imploding LNP campaign,” he said.
Dr Williams said there was no such thing as a safe seat and if the Coalition had a bad last week of the election campaign there could be an impact for Bowman.
Dr Williams said Mr Laming, first elected in 2004, made Bowman an interesting electorate.
“He has had what could be called public relations disasters,” Dr Williams said.
“He has had to put out spot fires that didn’t need to be started.”
It was revealed last year that Mr Laming had spent more than $13,500 of public funds to take his family on a week-long trip to the Northern Territory the previous year.
In 2015, he was kicked out of Parliament for 24 hours for pouring flammable cruise liner fuel onto his hands during a speech.
In January 2017, Mr Laming drew criticism for a social media post that questioned the hours teachers worked during school holidays.
There had also been a backlash within the LNP branch’s federal division council.
The analyst said he expected a swing in Queensland of 4 to 5 per cent against the government, mirroring the rest of the country.
Dr Williams said that voters generally had no hatred for Mr Morrison but Opposition Leader Bill Shorten suffered from a relative lack of popularity.
“If you ask people in the street what Scott Morrison has done since he became PM, they can’t tell you,” he said.
